The solar radiation invention patent discloses a solar radiation intensity prediction method based on a double stochastic theory in the field of solar radiation intensity prediction in power system new energy power generation to solve the problems existing in the field of solar radiation intensity prediction.
The method is: firstly calculate the cloud cover coefficient at each moment in the historical data according to the model; secondly, calculate the random distribution of the cloud cover coefficient under each cloud cover and the random distribution of cloud cover under each predicted cloud cover data; again, based on Double simulation technology calculates the expected cloud cover coefficient corresponding to each predicted cloud cover and the cloud cover coefficient interval that meets different confidence levels; finally, calculates the expected value of solar radiation intensity under cloud weather and the solar radiation intensity that meets different confidence levels at various times on the forecast day Interval.
Aiming at the problem of uncertain solar radiation intensity caused by changes in clouds, this invention provides a new idea for solar radiation intensity prediction and then photovoltaic power generation prediction, and the effect is relatively ideal.
